According to the “From Runway to Room Nights” research report from commercial real estate services company CBRE, air connectivity is directly linked to hotel performance.

CBRE uses route-level data to model expected increases in international arrivals and the flow-on demand for accommodation from new inbound flights.

“Increased capacity from core markets, including China, India, Southeast Asia, North America and the Middle East is expected to drive a continued recovery in international arrivals, reinforcing aviation’s role as a critical lever for tourism and hotel sector growth,” says Ally Gibson, head of hotels research at CBRE.

Sydney is tipped to benefit most, with 13 new flight routes forecast to drive 390,000 short-term arrivals and 542,000 room nights.

Melbourne’s 12 new routes could generate 409,000 room nights, helping absorb recent supply additions.

Perth is forecast to see the highest percentage growth, with 298,000 new short-term arrivals and 339,000 room nights.

Brisbane, boosted by its second runway, will add 267,000 room nights via eight new routes.

Adelaide and Cairns are also set to gain, with 102,000 and 104,000 room nights, respectively, reinforcing Cairns’ shift towards premium year-round leisure.

“Supply-constrained markets such as Brisbane, Perth and Cairns are particularly well positioned to benefit,” says Troy Craig, CBRE’s regional director, hotels and hospitality, valuation and advisory services, Asia Pacific.

“Meanwhile, the gateway markets of Sydney and Melbourne … are expected to sustain elevated levels of international arrivals.”